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Best FREE Podcast

Allow me to introduce you to one of the best FREE podcast sites you can find- Brian is a real estate coach, but his podcasts are for everyone that like and need a little "Motivation" and sales training.
Brian knew and has always been a super fan of the legendary Earl Nightingale. Recently Ms. Nightingale gifted Brian a treasure trove of unpublished recordings of Earl Nightingale. He is now starting to share them. Below is the first of many and I hope you enjoy.


2021 U.S. Economic Outlook


2021 U.S. Economic Outlook

I recently was on a Zoom Call with Mark Sprague – Economist with Independence Title and below are extracted points of interest.

The U.S. economy was experiencing its longest economic expansion in history. Additionally, the economy had added jobs every month for 127 straight months, unemployment was at 50-year low, and wages are growing at their fastest rate in nine years. Then came COVID.

However, we are seeing larger than normal consumer savings. It went from an average of $2.5 trillion to over $9 trillion!
The U.S. economic growth has been low and unequal across the country, relative to historical performance.
• 80+% of job growth happened in 53 metros out of 35,000+ in the US, since 2009.

Headwinds facing the US economy

• Nation was only about 45% recovered from 2009 recession. (Over 10 years.)
• Out of top 50 US metros, only 8 had fully recovered (full recovery of GDP, real estate values & employment) since 2009. Of the 8, 4 are in Texas.


• Inflation will average 1.2% in 2020 and is not expected to reach 2.0% till 2023. The core inflation rate strips out volatile gas and food prices.
• This is concerning - inflation is one of the economic strengths (in moderation) signals. Too much and your economy is in trouble, too little the same result. The federal reserve has been aiming for 2.0%.
• Currently the FOMC has stated they will keep rates at their current benchmark rate until inflation reached 2% for an extended period. Currently that shouldn’t occur till 2023.

Texas Economic Outlook

The Texas economy declined in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic after steady growth for 137 months into early 2020.

The Texas economy continued to improve through March 2020; energy rebounded into ‘Oil war’, healthcare, business, and professional services up. 2020 was better than expected. 2021 has started well.

– Global COVID slowdown slowed Texas economy. Recovering in 2021.
– Oil wars has slowed parts of Texas economy. New Oil war may help.........

• Real estate sales (commercial / residential) remain stronger than what was expected. 2020 was surprisingly stronger.

After the initial COVID shock and slowdown, residential real estate has rebounded into 2021.

Texas job growth picked up, outpacing the U.S. as a whole. Crisis stopped growth, but it is expected to rebound.

• Population expansion continues.
• Uneven growth. Only 12 cities out of 3300+ in Texas had any growth the last ten years.

Texas is #1 producer of oil and natural gas in the nation.

? Approximately 30% of US refinery capacity and 75% of US petrochemical production is in Texas.
? Because of ice shut down oil/gas consumption prices help Texas economy on net.
? Texas produces 10% of US manufactured goods.
? Texas is the top exporting state and accounts for 20% of US exports.

DFW Economic Outlook

The Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington Metropolitan Area (aka DFW metroplex), encompasses thirteen north Texas counties, Collin, Dallas, Denton, Ellis, Hood, Hunt, Johnson, Kaufman, Parker, Rockwall, Somervell, Tarrant and Wise.

DFW is home to just over 7 million people. The DFW area encompasses more than 9,200 square miles of total area, making it the largest inland metropolitan area in the United States.

DFW was #1 in the nation in job growth 2015 -2020 / 322,000+ jobs

• DFW is #2 in the country for percent job growth, 9.3% 2015 -2020.
• DFW has 26 Fortune 500 companies in 2021.
3 Fortune 10 companies. No other US Metro hosts more than one including San Francisco, NYC, LA Chicago.
• 3 global 25 companies. Only Beijing has more. No other global metro hosts more than one.
• The DFW region adds 322 new residents a day.
• The DFW population 7,573,136+ is larger the combined populations of North Dakota, Wyoming, Hawaii, South, Dakota, Montana, Vermont, Maine and Alaska.
• 4th largest metro in US, 2nd largest population growth.
• DFW continues to be the largest landlocked metro in the world.
• DFW’s Highland Village was the nation’s first planned shopping mall.
• The Trinity River Corridor will be 10 times the size of New York's Central Park.

Economic Forecast for 2021

Real estate sales came out of COVID stronger than expected and the market is pressed for inventory. It will take a couple of years to catch up.

It has gone from a seller's market to less than 1 month inventory. The biggest challenge will continue to be the lack of inventory.

Rates at record lows and should continue through into 2022.

Residential values will continue to improve.

Demand continues to be greater than expected.

Continued value, improvement and interest is different than the previous 20+
years. Values will continue to rise. Rates should hold for a couple of years.

Real estate values have not decreased since late 80’s.

Global equity/capital is looking at the strength of the Texas markets, particularly DFW and Austin.

Single Family - strong with lack of inventory (new and used). Sales strong across all price points.

Robust going into crisis and maintaining.

Foreclosures – nonevent in most of Texas due to strength of market. Still a seller's market.

There is not a better time to buy!

Celebrate July 4th with live music, parades, and fireworks!!

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Is Sapphire Bay in Rowlett Dead or Alive?

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Low Down Jumbo Loan Program


Why You Need a Personal Umbrella Policy

One of the most important insurance policies you can buy is the personal umbrella policy, but many people are unaware they need one. This policy provides high limits of liability to protect you against a catastrophic liability loss. For example, a major car accident may injure numerous people or cause head injuries or death that will result in liability far in excess of the limits typically purchased in a personal auto policy. An umbrella policy sits on top of the auto and homeowners policies to provide higher limits of protection. In addition to providing higher limits, this policy normally pays for some losses not covered by the underlying policy, such as legitimate allegations concerning libel or slander.
Personal umbrella policies are growing in popularity. As the tendency to sue for damages rises and awards granted by the courts grow, the personal umbrella policy is increasingly seen as an insurance necessity, rather than a luxury. It is especially attractive because of its relatively low cost.
In particular, people with certain characteristics or who engage in certain activities have a higher-than-average need for a personal umbrella policy.
These situations include the following:
  • Your total assets are greater than your underlying liability limits.
  • You are financially responsible for the actions of a young, inexperienced driver.
  • You live in an exclusive and affluent neighborhood.
  • You have a high-profile career or high income.
  • You frequently host guests on your property.
  • Your residence includes a swimming pool.
  • You own waterfront property, a farm or a ranch.
  • You own watercraft, aircraft or off-road vehicles.
  • You own numerous rental properties.
  • You engage in extensive international travel for pleasure.
If you rent a home or an apartment you should consider an umbrella policy as well. In the event you accidentally start a fire while burning a candle, and the fire damages adjoining apartments. The tenant’s liability exposure could be enormous in such a situation.

Brian Buffini's Bold Predictions for 2021


Earlier this week I had an opportunity to listen to Brian Baffini, one of the top real estate coaches in the world, and Dr. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist with NAR, discuss the real estate industry in 2020 and what to expect in 2021.  Now, remember, this is coming from two guys that are supposed to know what they are talking about.  But also remember they are talking nationally, and Texas normally fares better than the nation as a whole.  In a snippet, 2020 was good and 2021 will continue down the same path.

Below are some of the highlights I jotted down:

  • The 2020 Presidential Elections - proves that America likes a divided government.  No matter what side you are on, things are often the best when you don't get everything you want.  That is why our brilliant forefathers set it up the way they did.  
  • Housing inventory continues to be very low, in all price ranges.  Sales continue in spite of low inventory, builders continue to build, but they cannot keep up with the demand.  2021 Housing Forecast shows that Sales will rise between 5% to 10% and prices will continue to go up between 3% to 5%.



Brian pointed to Jerome Powell’s, Chair of the Federal Reserve statement that the Feds would hold rates between 0% - 0.25% through 2023


Brain encouraged listeners to take advantage of the present and upcoming good years, 2021 - 2023 in preparation for what is to come.  However, remember that there will come a time, in the near future, that the Piper will demand to be paid and inflation will come.  So now is the best time to buy.  Buy up to that home you have been wanting, buy the investment properties and/or that second home you have always wanted.  But do not buy above your means.  Buy and invest wisely.

One of the indicators of Brian’s optimism is our unemployment rate, he feels confident in the future, in spite of Covid.


Another indicator of his optimism is the rental market.  Look where people are going.  Leaving the big cities and moving to smaller, warmer locations.




Why the changes you ask?  Just like 911 caused security changes worldwide, there will be many lingering or permanent ramifications from Covid.  Some you may consider good, some not.  How about remote workers?  According to a Fox News report between 14-23 million employees plan to work remotely, either permanently or 3 to 4 days a week.  That leads to a need for larger homes, and maybe a home farther out of town if a commute is reduced to once or twice a week.


If you are interested in seeing Brian’s full report, you will find a link below:

Brian Buffini's Bold Real Estate Predictions for 2021


To recap and summarize, the next 3 years are expected to be very good as far as real estate goes.  Now is a great time to make the change you have been contemplating and/or dreaming about - Whether it is downsizing, upsizing, buying a second vacation home or investment properties.  And I can help with them all.  I am here for simple questions or complicated purchases.  Let me know how I can best help you. 

If you are thinking of investing, ask me about the 1031 Exchange Program – a phenomenal way to defer taxes.


Your Full Time, Professional REALTOR®,


Jerry Welch, CRS

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